lived experience of our staff and volunteers, and the communities they serve, is telling a story of more frequent and more impactful disasters.” “The scenarios allow emergency services lead- ers to inhabit a future imagined world that is plausible; it’s not science fiction. You can test strategies against these vignettes, and adapt and plan in response,” Matthew says. The four Transformative Scenarios imagine what Australian society could look like in 2035. Each reflects a different degree and combina- tion of two driving forces: governance and social cohesion. The Unexpected Hero, for example, is a world
driven by data and information, where social connectedness has eroded in favour of protec- tive self-interest and an increasing reliance on technology. In the Butterfly, on the other hand, the focus is on responsibly stewarding the planet for generations to come and banding together to help each other out. “In Queensland, we anticipate future climate hazards will include big fires, big floods, and big wind events such as cyclones,” Matthew explains. “We ran these through the Transformative Scenarios, which gave us significant amounts of information to work with. We could see if our strategies were going to be effective for that
THE INNOVATIVE SCENARIOS TESTING QUEENSLAND’S DISASTER STRATEGIES The Queensland Government’s innovative work in climate risk management aims to save lives, homes, the environment, and resources, creating a more resilient future for everyone.
I magine that in 2030, the east coast of Australia is hit by massive storm surges, displacing mil- lions of people; in 2032, we face a bushfire sea- son that dwarfs the Black Summer of 2019-20, costing $400 million in recovery; in 2035, another pandemic strikes amid widespread flooding. How prepared would our emergency services and communities be? “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail,” said Benjamin Franklin in 1790 – and, when lives are at stake, failure is not an option. The Queensland Government is using innova- tive climate and social scenarios to test its dis- aster management strategies and guide strate- gic planning. Matthew Dyer, Principal Program Officer, Planning, Risk, Research, and Innovation unit, with Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES), says the Transformative Scenarios are helping emergency services prepare for a cli- mate-challenged future. Matthew, who has more than 20 years’ experi- ence in the industry, adds: “ More and more, the
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