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products, and biological manipulation will be possible for new organisations and producers.
example, physical retailers will race to add in- store sensors and consumer behaviour models, digital platform players will leverage their head start in data analytics to disrupt traditional sales channels, and even processors and producers will build relationships with and seek out direct channels to consumers. 2. Regional redesign Driven by new energy systems and automation technologies, there will be a fundamental re-de- sign of individual production systems and re- gions as everything from genetics to irrigation to layout of farm operations will be optimised for automation. 3. Outside solutions to climate problems New technologies such as advanced sensing, machine learning, and synthetic biology will help mitigate climate change volatility. 4. Divorcing flavour, nutrition, and form Synthetic biology technologies will allow for the design of food products untied from natural pro- duction systems, and commercial competition will drive development of new foods through cellular agriculture, molecular engineering, and 3D printing. For example, Australian start-up Vow is changing the concept of meat by building a library of cell lines and genetic traits to help re- design cultured meats. 5. Supporting full-spectrum producers Producers of the future will rely on a wide mix of income streams through broadly defined re- source conversion: not only converting grass to meat or fibre, but also converting sunlight to solar power, soil to carbon sequestration servi- ces, or data collection to useful models. 6. The searchable food web Measurement and tracking tools, in combination with molecular tags and the internet of things (IoT), will allow for individual food products to be tracked and traced, increasing the importance of managing trust in food systems. 7. Biology goes digital Genetic therapies and gene editing tools such as CRISPR (a set of DNA sequences that allow for relatively easy gene editing) will become democratised through commercially available
PREPARING FOR, NOT PREDICTING, THE FUTURE As the next few years unfold, the future forces and forecasts described above won’t stand still. Part of what the report revealed is that forecasts will also evolve and change. Some will follow a predictable trajectory; others will bend on a different path. And, of course, unexpected and unpredictable black-swan events will potentially change everything. The report reminds us that the future is some- thing over which we have agency and that the purpose of looking to the horizon is not to strictly predict, but to prepare for what is to come – whether that is expected or surprising. Monitor- ing the drivers and signals of change makes it possible for Australian agriculture to both main- tain and update its model of the future, as well as direct preparations in the present. While we don’t know exactly what shape the future will take, thanks to the Future Forces: A ten-year horizon for Australian agriculture re- port, what we do know is that: • Future developments will involve new com- binations of known and unknown principles and practices, across domains and supply chains, and give rise to new competitive forces. • Tomorrow’s agricultural producers may be categorically different than today’s as new technologies and systems shape their roles. • The future will require new methods of support, education and training in order to make sure people thrive. • There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach as solutions to future challenges will need to be both local and global. • The future will favour collaboration over com- petition in order to solve complex problems. John Harvey is the Managing Director of AgriFutures Australia, an organisation committed to growing the long-term prosperity of Australian rural industries.
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