106
INNOVATION IN PRACTICE
While no one can predict the future, it is important to explore what Australian food and fibre production and consumption might look like in a future shaped by growing trends and potential disruptions that are starting to take hold today. The Future Forces Shaping Australian Agriculture
By John Harvey
Australian agriculture. These forces are high-level and reach across categories. The report explored these underlying dir- ections of change in order to better understand the operating environment of the future. • Viral disinformation in the food system – Food issues become increasingly susceptible to disinfor- mation campaigns that use deepfakes, conversa- tional artificial intelligence and accessible botnets that can manipulate online discussions. • Interconnected digital infrastructure – An inter- connected system of digital capabilities unleashes new opportunities in agricultural supply chains. • New geographies of climate change – Movement of people, climate regions, and crops define an era of uncertainty. • Rewiring the grid – Distributed energy production is made possible by advancements in renewable and alternative technologies. • Domesticating the cell – New products, experi- ences, and concerns will arise from the ability to design biology. FORECASTS The report found emerging trends and innovations that, in combination with the above forces, give rise to seven forecasts for Australian agriculture. These fore- casts include signals of change and are windows into how the future might look very different from today. 1. The war for the consumer relationship Many new stakeholders, including actors who have never before been in the agricultural system, will seek to influence and capture consumer interest as digitisa- tion of every step of the food system increases. For
Making forecasts about the future is not about pre- dicting what is more likely to happen, it is about provid- ing insights and stimulating conversations that expand the scope of our strategic thinking. When it comes to Australian agriculture, we look at the forces that may shape its functional health and related dynamics in order to consider the opportunities and risks that exist with the system and all along the value chain. The past decade has seen seismic shifts in how we produce, consume, and use food and fibre. For ex- ample, drones went from expensive playthings to commodity equipment, and crop genome sequencing went from high-cost research to an affordable service. E-commerce and social media marketing allow con- sumers to buy food online and have it delivered to their front door, often directly from the producer. The next 10 years will stretch our preconceived no- tions about the future and as the speed of change is increasing, so too does uncertainty and the diversity of opportunities. That is why it’s important to examine the plausible – yet sometimes provocative – possibilities that lie ahead. AgriFutures Australia, Agthentic Advis- ory and the Institute for the Future did exactly that in the 2021 report, Future Forces: A ten-year horizon for Australian agriculture, which offers a new perspective on the emerging agricultural and food landscape. FUTURE FORCES In the report, Agthentic Advisory and the Institute for the Future identified five social, environmental, economic and technological forces that are set to grow over the coming decade. While these forces are much bigger than the global food and fibre sys- tem, they nonetheless have already begun to shape
Powered by FlippingBook