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the australian farmer
Ag2050 – scenarios to decisions Discussion paper 2026 – Executive Summary - By CSIRO and Australian Farm Institute.
sions discussion paper co-hosted with the Australian Farm Institute to guide immediate industry and policy choices. Why now: from scenarios to decisions The Ag2050 program delivered a multi-year, evi- dence-driven effort to define the transformational shifts required for Australia’s farming systems to be profitable, productive, and sustainable by 2050. The program’s momentum and wider sectoral shifts now need to be translated into clear, investable priorities, as the decisions being made in the next 12–18 months will materially shape productivity, resilience, market access and investment pathways to 2050. Australian agriculture is transitioning from a period of exploring possible futures to one in which near term decisions are actively shaping long term outcomes. Since the publication of CSIRO’s Ag2050 Scenarios Report in 2024, sustainability commitments, land use pres- sures, geopolitical instability, rising input costs and constrained public budgets are no longer emerging signals; they are structural features of the operating environment. What the Ag2050 Roundtable did Against this backdrop, CSIRO convened the Ag2050 Roundtable (March 2026) to support decision making at a critical inflection point. Rather than revisiting scen- arios or debating preferred end states, the Roundt- able focused on identifying the real decisions already underway or imminent, particularly those shaping Financial Year 2027 (FY27) settings, and where uncer- tainty is constraining effective action. The Roundtable also focused on scoping a small number of projects that could reduce this uncertainty and improve deci-
The Ag2050 program was an initiative led by the CSIRO, in collaboration with the Australian Depart- ment of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) and the Australian Farm Institute, designed to reimagine and transform Australian agriculture for the year 2050. Its key objectives and focus areas were: • Target: Land-based farming, broadacre livestock, mixed farming systems, forestry, aquaculture, and fisheries. • Core Goal: Build a long-term vision to make Aus- tralian food and fibre production more product- ive, resilient, and sustainable amidst climate change, net-zero mandates, aging workforces, and changing markets. • Collaborators: CSIRO Futures, DAFF, the Australian Farm Institute, and various industry stakeholders. The first major milestone of the program was the Ag2050 Scenarios Report (published in April 2024), which outlined four evidence-based, plausible futures for Australian farming: 1. Regional Ag Capitals: Consolidated, tech-ad- vanced systems with a strong food and fibre focus. 2. Landscape Stewardship: High reliance on novel tech, environmental flourishing, and carbon se- questration. 3. Climate Survival: Incremental adaptation with pla- teauing or strained productivity. 4. System Decline: Stressed landscapes, declining yields, and workforce shrinkage. Following the initial report, the initiative evolved into a broader multi-year program—including work like the Caring for Country initiative (integrating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge into agri-food re- search) and the Ag2050 next steps: scenarios to deci-
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